来源：Jevons的宏观笔记
阿三去年进口了7000吨白银。
(Washington, D.C. – February 10, 2026) After posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 last year, silver prices continued to set new highs in 2026, fueled by rising investor interest. The metal reached multiple record levels in January, breaching the psychologically important $100 level for the first time. As a result, the gold:silver ratio fell below 50, a level last seen in 2012. Silver then declined below US$80.00 but has since shown resilience, forming technical price support. （华盛顿特区，2026 年 2 月 10 日）继去年创下自 1979 年以来最强年度表现后，白银价格在 2026 年继续创下新高，投资者兴趣日益浓厚。该金属在 1 月份达到多个创纪录水平，首次突破心理重要的 100 美元关口。因此，黄金白银比价跌破 50，该水平上次出现是在 2012 年。白银随后下跌至 80.00 美元以下，但此后显示出韧性，形成技术性价格支撑。
The underlying drivers that supported silver throughout much of 2025 have remained firmly in place so far this year. These include tight physical supply in London, a volatile geopolitical backdrop, US policy uncertainty, and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. In addition, silver’s underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive. The silver market is expected to remain in deficit (total supply less demand) for a sixth consecutive year in 2026.支持白银在 2025 年大部分时间走强的基本驱动因素至今仍然稳固。这些因素包括伦敦实物供应紧张、动荡的地缘政治背景、美国政策不确定性以及对美联储独立性的担忧。此外，白银的基本供需基本面仍然支持其价格。预计白银市场在 2026 年将继续处于赤字状态（总供应量减去总需求量）第六个连续年度。
The Silver Institute provides this annual outlook on the 2026 silver market, relying on analysis provided by Metals Focus, the distinguished global precious metals research consultancy based in London. The firm will research and produce the Silver Institute’s annual report on the international silver market, World Silver Survey 2026, which will be released on April 15.白银协会提供这份关于 2026 年白银市场的年度展望，该报告基于伦敦总部、享有盛誉的全球贵金属研究咨询公司 Metals Focus 提供的分析。该公司将研究和撰写白银协会关于国际白银市场的年度报告《世界白银调查 2026》，该报告将于 4 月 15 日发布。
Silver Demand白银需求
Global silver demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2026, as healthy gains in retail investment are likely to offset most of the losses across other key demand segments, notably in jewelry, silverware, and industrial demand.预计 2026 年全球白银需求将基本保持不变，因为零售投资的健康增长可能会抵消其他主要需求领域的大部分损失，特别是在珠宝、银器和工业需求方面。
Silver industrial fabrication is forecast to decline by 2 percent in 2026, to a four-year low of around 650 million ounces (Moz.) As was seen last year, the weakness will be underpinned by developments in the photovoltaic (PV) sector. While global solar installations are expected to continue rising, ongoing thrifting and outright substitution away from silver will result in falling silver PV demand.预计 2026 年白银工业加工量将下降 2%，降至四年来的最低点约 6.5 亿盎司（Moz.）。如去年所见，这种疲软将受到光伏（PV）行业发展的支撑。虽然全球太阳能安装量预计将继续上升，但持续的节约和直接替代银将导致白银光伏需求下降。
Several silver applications continue to benefit from favorable structural growth trends. In particular, the expansion of data centers, artificial intelligence-related technologies, and the automotive sector are expected to support silver consumption across a range of industrial end-uses, partially offsetting the decline in PV-related demand.一些银的应用继续受益于有利的结构性增长趋势。特别是数据中心、人工智能相关技术和汽车行业的扩张预计将支持各工业终端用途的银消费，部分抵消了光伏相关需求的下降。
Jewelry demand is projected to fall for the second consecutive year, declining by over 9 percent in 2026 to 178 Moz, its lowest level since 2020. As in 2025, record-high prices are expected to curtail consumption across most key markets, led by India. China will be the main exception, with demand anticipated to edge higher, supported by product innovation and the growing popularity of gold-plated silver jewelry.珠宝需求预计连续第二年下降，2026 年将下降超过 9%，至 1780 万盎司，为 2020 年以来的最低水平。与 2025 年一样，创纪录的高价预计将抑制大多数主要市场的消费，印度引领这一趋势。中国将是主要的例外，需求预计将小幅上升，得益于产品创新和镀金银珠宝的日益普及。
Silverware demand is expected to contract more sharply, declining by approximately 17 percent in 2026. Most losses are forecast to occur in India, where silverware demand is highly price-sensitive due to its discretionary and gift-driven nature.银器需求预计将更大幅度收缩，2026 年将下降约 17%。大部分损失预计将发生在印度，由于银器的消费具有高度价格敏感性，且其性质多为非必需品和礼品驱动。
By contrast, physical investment is forecast to rise by 20 percent to a three-year high of 227 Moz. After three consecutive years of decline, Western physical investment is expected to recover in 2026, as silver’s exceptional price performance and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty rekindle investor interest. Investment demand in India is also likely to build on last year’s substantial gains amid positive investor sentiment.相比之下，实物投资预计将增长 20%，达到三年来的最高点 2270 万盎司。在连续三年下降后，西方实物投资预计将在 2026 年恢复，因为白银的优异价格表现和持续宏观经济不确定性重新激发了投资者的兴趣。印度的投资需求也可能在积极的投资者情绪下延续去年的显著增长。
Silver Supply 白银供应
Total global silver supply is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent in 2026, reaching a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces.预计 2026 年全球白银总供应量将增长 1.5%，达到十年来的最高点 10.5 亿盎司。
In 2026, silver mine production is expected to increase by 1% to 820 Moz, driven by stronger output from existing operations and recently commissioned projects. In Mexico, the most growth will come from primary silver mines. In China, we expect higher output from China Gold International’s Jiama polymetallic mine as the plant expansion continues. Gains in Canada are expected from freshly commissioned projects and existing primary gold and silver operations, most notably Hecla’s Keno Hill and New Gold’s New Afton (in the process of being acquired by Coeur Mining). In Morocco, a rise in production will be underpinned by Aya Gold and Silver’s Zgounder mine as the ramp-up phase is completed. In Peru, forecasted lower production from operations such as Nexa Resources’ Cerro Lindo and Buenaventura’s Tambomayo will outweigh expected increases at other operations.2026 年，银矿产量预计将增长 1%，达到 820 万吨，这得益于现有矿山和最近投产项目的产量提升。在墨西哥，增长主要来自斑岩铜矿。在中国，随着中国黄金国际的嘉马多金属矿扩建项目的继续，预计产量将有所提高。加拿大的增长将来自新投产项目以及现有的斑岩金矿和斑岩银矿，其中最值得注意的是 Hecla 的肯诺山矿和新黄金公司的纽阿夫顿矿（正在被 Coeur Mining 收购）。在摩洛哥，随着 Aya Gold and Silver 的 Zgounder 矿的启动阶段完成，产量将有所上升。在秘鲁，Nexa Resources 的 Cerro Lindo 和 Buenaventura 的 Tambomayo 等运营项目的产量预计将下降，这将被其他运营项目的预期增长所抵消。
By-product silver from primary gold mines is forecast to grow in 2026. No one country dominates, with notable increases expected from Barrick Mining’s Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, Gold Fields’ Salares Norte in Chile, and Polymetal International’s Nezhda in Russia. Output from primary silver mines will remain virtually flat year-on-year, supplying 28% of silver mine production. In contrast to output from primary gold and silver mines, supply from base metal operations is expected to decrease marginally year-on-year. Gold, copper, and silver prices have reached all-time highs, enabling lower production volumes to deliver higher revenues. This could underpin stronger production in the coming years, as companies benefit from elevated prices and healthier margins that can be directed towards capital development. However, suppressed zinc and lead prices create downside risk to the sustainability of lead/zinc operations. 主要金矿的副产品银预计将在 2026 年增长。没有哪个国家占据主导地位，预计多米尼加共和国的 Barrick Mining 的 Pueblo Viejo、智利的 Gold Fields 的 Salares Norte 和俄罗斯的 Polymetal International 的 Nezhda 将出现显著增长。主要银矿的产量将保持几乎持平，占银矿总产量的 28%。与主要金矿和银矿的产量相比，基础金属运营的供应预计将逐年略有下降。黄金、铜和白银价格已达到历史最高点，使得较低的生产量能够带来更高的收入。这可能会支撑未来几年的更强生产，因为公司受益于价格上涨和更健康的利润率，这些利润可以用于资本发展。然而，受抑制的锌和铅价格对铅/锌运营的可持续性构成下行风险。
Silver recycling is projected to rise by 7 percent, with volumes surpassing 200 Moz for the first time since 2012. Most scrap sources are expected to post high single-digit growth, led by silverware as consumers increasingly take advantage of elevated prices.银回收预计将增长 7%，产量首次超过 200 盎司，自 2012 年以来首次超过这一水平。大多数废料来源预计将实现高个位数增长，其中银器增长尤为显著，因为消费者越来越利用价格上涨的机遇。
As a result, the silver market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for the sixth consecutive year, at a noteworthy 67 Moz. Of note, the global silver market will continue to rely on the release of bullion from above-ground inventories, adding pressure to an already tight physical market.因此，预计白银市场将在 2026 年出现第六年连续的缺口，达到引人注目的 67 万吨。值得注意的是，全球白银市场将继续依赖从地面库存中释放的贵金属，给本已紧张的实物市场带来更大压力。
Silver Investment白银投资
The silver price has risen by 11 percent in 2026 as of February 9. Elevated geopolitical tensions, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and persistent uncertainty surrounding US policy have continued to support precious metals investment. Coin and bar demand has strengthened in recent months, while global ETP holdings stand at an estimated 1.31 billion ounces.截至 2 月 9 日，白银价格在 2026 年已上涨 11%。地缘政治紧张局势加剧、对美联储独立性的担忧以及围绕美国政策的持续不确定性，继续支撑贵金属投资。近几个月来，硬币和条块需求增强，全球交易所交易产品（ETP）持仓估计为 13.1 亿盎司。
During this period, continuing physical tightness has further amplified upward price momentum. This reflects ongoing US tariff concerns, strong investment demand, and a persistent fundamental deficit that has been in place since 2021. Earlier uncertainty about China’s silver export policy briefly raised fears of supply disruptions, though these concerns have eased in recent weeks.在此期间，持续的实物紧俏进一步放大了价格上涨的动能。这反映了持续的美国关税担忧、强劲的投资需求以及自 2021 年以来一直存在的持续基本缺口。早些时候关于中国白银出口政策的不确定性曾短暂引发供应中断的担忧，但这些担忧在最近几周已有所缓解。
Looking ahead, the global economic and geopolitical environment is likely to remain supportive for precious metals prices in 2026. In addition, physical liquidity in the London silver market may remain relatively tight. Furthermore, a still-supportive macroeconomic backdrop and forecasted strength in gold should help limit downside risks for the silver price, even though heightened price volatility will remain a feature for the foreseeable future.展望未来，2026 年全球经济和地缘政治环境可能继续对贵金属价格提供支持。此外，伦敦白银市场的实物流动性可能仍将保持相对紧张。此外，仍然支持性的宏观经济背景和预计的黄金走强将有助于限制白银价格的下行风险，尽管未来可预见的时期内价格波动性仍将是一个特点。
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